On February 28, 2026, a sharp military escalation in the Middle East triggered immediate closures of the Strait of Hormuz, a full suspension of Suez Canal transits, and widespread airspace shutdowns across key Gulf states. What began as a regional security crisis has now become a direct disruption to global supply chains.
Ocean carriers have diverted vessels planned for Suez transit around Africa, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and vessels that cannot be rerouted have been asked to take shelter. Airlines have grounded flights and rerouted aircraft across longer corridors. Several providers have formally invoked force majeure, suspending standard service level agreements and transit time guarantees due to circumstances beyond their control.
Here is what we know and how Flexport is responding. To monitor the situation, you can view live container ship movements with Flexport Atlas.
Ocean Freight: Suez Canal and Strait of Hormuz Closures
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the suspension of Suez Canal transits remove the option for transiting Suez used by some Ocean carriers for Indian Subcontinent to Europe and US East Coast, while simultaneously blocking access to key Gulf hubs.
What makes this disruption particularly significant is that some Asia–Europe services had only recently returned to Suez.
On the Asia–North Europe trade, CMA CGM had officially resumed Suez transits for its flagship FAL 1 and FAL 3 services, connecting Shanghai, Ningbo, and Yantian with Southampton, Hamburg, and Rotterdam. The return to Suez reduced full-loop transit times by seven days, from 105 days down to 98 days. That efficiency gain has now been reversed, with both services pulled back to Cape routing.
Within the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd had previously announced that AE12 and AE15 services were next in line for a structural return to Suez, following initial adjustments on ISC-focused services. Those plans have now been formally rescinded.
On the Asia–Mediterranean trade, CMA CGM’s MEX service, linking Asia with Valencia and Fos-sur-Mer, had briefly returned to the Suez route earlier this year. It has now reverted to the Cape. Similarly, Gemini’s SE1 and SE3 services were being upgraded to 20,000 TEU vessels with the intent to route via Suez and improve reliability in the Adriatic and Spanish regions. Those structural changes remain in place, but the Suez routing component has been withdrawn.
For Transpacific services between Asia and the U.S. East Coast, the impact is more limited. Most services were already avoiding Suez, with the exception of certain Indian-Subcontinent-linked routings. The broader Transpacific network remains largely unchanged from a routing perspective, though equipment imbalances and capacity tightening may create secondary effects.
Across alliances, the response has been consistent. Vessels scheduled for Suez are being rerouted around Africa. Far East–Red Sea services are suspended. Cargo destined for Gulf ports is being held at transshipment hubs or diverted to alternative Mediterranean and African gateways. Some carriers have also suspended new bookings to Persian Gulf destinations until safe feeder or land-bridge solutions can be confirmed.
For shipments currently inside the Persian Gulf, the situation is more immediate. Vessels have been instructed to take shelter at major hubs such as Jebel Ali, Abu Dhabi, and Doha. Cargo on those vessels is effectively paused until safe passage can be reestablished.
Example: CMA CGM SAN ANTONIO left Jebel Ali on February 28, and is now unlikely to arrive to Mundra, India by Monday, March 2.
The operational consequences are significant.
Transit times between Asia and Europe, and on certain Asia–U.S. East Coast lanes, are expected to increase by 10 to 14 days as vessels detour around the Cape of Good Hope. That extension places additional pressure on equipment availability, schedule reliability, and network capacity.
At the same time, we anticipate:
- Emergency diversion fees and war risk surcharges
- Spot rate increases driven by capacity tightening
- Port congestion at alternative Mediterranean and Southeast Asian gateways
As carriers discharge Gulf-bound cargo elsewhere and rebalance networks, secondary bottlenecks are likely to emerge.
Air Freight: Widespread Airspace Closures
The disruption is not limited to ocean freight.
On the same day, coordinated military strikes between the United States, Israel, and Iran led to the immediate closures of sovereign airspace across Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait and immediate suspension of operations to and via the Middle East for most airlines.
The closures of Middle East hubs (Doha, Dubai, Riyad, Bahrain) reduces global capacity and specifically impacts Asia - Europe, Asia - Middle East and Europe - Asia Air Trade.
Several carriers have suspended regional operations to, from and via the Middle East and invoked force majeure. Middle East carriers which represent 13.6% of global capacity (source: IATA) in particular are unable to operate the majority of their flights. Their operations will be disrupted beyond the trade between Asia - Middle East - Europe.
With airspace inaccessible and safety risks elevated, most shipments originating in, destined for, or transiting through the Middle East are being grounded or diverted. Service levels and transit guarantees are currently suspended by the airlines.
The Middle East carriers stoppage, combined with the longer and more fuel-intensive rerouting required by European and Asian airlines, is reducing effective global capacity and increasing costs to operate. We expect immediate volatility, including a sharp increase in airfreight spot rates, suspension of longer term rate agreements under force majeure and growing backlogs on key Far East corridors.
Even lanes not directly tied to the Middle East will feel secondary pressure as aircraft and crews are redeployed across longer routes.
How Flexport Is Responding
Our teams are actively responding to protect our customers’ cargo and minimize disruption.
For ocean freight, we are evaluating alternative routings and, where appropriate, Sea-Air solutions through Southeast Asia to bypass affected zones. For air freight, we are in active negotiations with non-Middle Eastern carriers to secure remaining capacity and identify alternative routings and gateways for shipments on Asia - Middle East - Europe trade.
All diversions, vessel shelter positions, and flight adjustments are reflected in real time on the Flexport platform. Customers can monitor shipment status directly through Flexport Atlas, as well as in the Flexport Platform, while dedicated account teams are proactively reaching out to those with cargo currently sheltered, grounded, or diverted.
In parallel, we are working closely with carrier and airline partners to model recovery scenarios and longer-term schedule adjustments. As clarity emerges, we will provide structured guidance on stabilization timelines and contingency planning.
What to Expect
In the near term, businesses should prepare for longer lead times, tight capacity, elevated rates, and continued volatility across both ocean and air networks.
This remains a fluid situation. Operational directives are evolving quickly, and conditions on the ground and in the air may shift with little notice. We are committed to providing transparent, timely updates as new guidance is issued.
