Early Updates on the Trump Administration’s Tariff and Trade Policies, Part IV

This page contains some of Flexport’s older updates (late October of 2025) on the Trump administration’s tariffs and trade policies. Find other early updates here:

• Mid-June to mid-October of 2025
• Mid-March to mid-June of 2025
• Updates before mid-March of 2025 (including our original blog on the 2024 election)

For Flexport’s most up-to-date developments and guidance, check out our live tariff and trade blog.

Updated October 27, 2025:

Yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the U.S. and China had reached a “substantial framework” for President Trump’s and President Xi’s in-person meeting this Thursday in South Korea. Key negotiation topics include:

• Rare earth exports: At Thursday’s meeting, Bessent anticipates that “we will get some kind of deferral on the rare earth export controls that the Chinese had discussed.” Earlier this month, China announced its latest set of rare earth controls, including a licensing requirement for those exporting or re-exporting rare earth products that originated in China or were produced with Chinese technology. Bessent indicated on October 15 that these export controls are a deciding factor in whether President Trump proceeds with implementing the 100% tariff increase on November 1.
• Soybean purchases: China has long been the biggest purchaser of American soybean exports. But given China’s retaliatory tariffs on a wide range of American goods this year, Chinese demand for American soybeans has dropped significantly. On Sunday, Bessent stated that soybean farmers will be “extremely happy with this deal for this year and for the coming years,” but did not provide any further specifics.
• Fentanyl: President Trump has cited the “flow of fentanyl precursors” as justification for imposing IEEPA “fentanyl” tariffs on nations like China, which currently faces a 20% “fentanyl” levy under the existing tariff truce. In Sunday’s interview, Bessent added that “we will be able to discuss [China] helping us get this terrible fentanyl crisis under control.”

If the U.S. and China fail to reach an agreement before November 1, President Trump has indicated that tariffs on China could rise to 155%: a 100% hike on top of the existing rates, which consist of a 10% reciprocal tariff, a 20% “fentanyl” tariff, and up to 25% on certain products with the Section 301 tariff.

Separately, President Trump signed reciprocal trade deals yesterday with three Southeast Asian nations: Cambodia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Under these new agreements, most goods from the three nations will remain subject to a 19% reciprocal tariff rate, but select goods—including certain aerospace products and pharmaceuticals—will be exempt from tariffs.

President Trump also signed memorandums of understanding with Thailand and Malaysia that will increase critical mineral exports to the United States. While these agreements may reduce U.S. dependence on China for minerals and rare earths, China maintains a monopoly on the world’s rare earth supply, including 70% of global mining capacity and 90% of global processing.

Updated October 22, 2025:

At a news conference yesterday, President Trump confirmed that tariffs on Chinese goods may rise to 155% on November 1 if the U.S. and China fail to reach a trade agreement by then. President Trump initially proposed the 100% tariff hike in an October 10 Truth Social post.

“China is [currently] paying 55%,” he said yesterday, referring to the combined duty rate on China under the existing tariff truce: a 10% baseline reciprocal tariff, a 20% “fentanyl” tariff, and a 25% Section 301 tariff implemented during President Trump’s first term.

President Trump also confirmed that he still intends to meet with President Xi at next week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum in South Korea. At that meeting, “I expect we’ll probably work out a very fair deal with China,” President Trump said yesterday.

Updated October 21, 2025:

President Trump may soon announce increased tariffs on Colombia, after telling reporters on Sunday (October 19) that he planned to announce the new tariff rate as soon as yesterday. Prior to announcing those plans, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that Colombian President Gustavo Petro is “strongly encouraging the massive production of drugs,” and that the U.S. would soon halt all aid to Colombia. The U.S. currently imposes a 10% tariff on Colombian imports.

Separately, the Trump administration is considering plans to impose tariffs as high as 100% on Nicaraguan imports, either immediately or phased in over a period of up to 12 months. The announcement comes after the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) completed a Section 301 probe into unfair trade practices, with yesterday’s report indicating “pervasive abuses of labor rights, restrictions on the right to property and religious freedom, and the elimination of rule of law” in Nicaragua, all of which place “burdens or restrictions on U.S. commerce.”

The USTR report also proposes that the U.S. either fully or partially suspend benefits to Nicaragua under the Dominican Republic-Central America-United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR). Suspending these benefits would particularly impact Nicaraguan exports of yarn, fabric, and apparel.

Updated October 20, 2025:

On Friday evening (October 17), President Trump issued a proclamation that will implement a 25% tariff on medium- and heavy-duty trucks (MHDVs) and their parts beginning November 1. Buses and other vehicles classified under HTSUS heading 8702 will be subject to a 10% tariff.

USMCA: According to the proclamation, importers of USMCA-compliant MHDVs may submit documentation detailing the amount of U.S. content in each truck, and pay the 25% tariff only on non-U.S. content. This is the case with USMCA-compliant automobile imports.

• USMCA-compliant MHDV parts will be exempt from the 25% tariff until the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Customs and Border Control (CBP) establish a process for applying the tariff to MHDVs' non-U.S. content. Meanwhile, knock-down kits and equivalent parts compilations will be subject to the 25% tariff, regardless of USMCA preferential treatment qualification.
• According to data from the International Trade Administration, the U.S. imported nearly $21 billion’s worth of medium- and heavy-duty trucks in 2024 alone. Mexico was the biggest supplier (about 74%) of last year's imports, followed by Canada (just over 20%).

Other exemptions: MHDVs and buses that were manufactured 25+ years before their date of entry will be exempt from these tariffs.

Stacking: MHDV tariffs will follow the same stacking order as automobile and auto part tariffs. In other words, imports subject to MHDV tariffs will be exempt from other Section 232 tariffs (steel, aluminum, copper, and timber) and IEEPA tariffs (reciprocal, “fentanyl” on Canada and Mexico, and other levies).