Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• U.S. Opens New Section 301 Investigations: On March 11, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced that it has initiated new Section 301 probes into the following trading partners: China; the EU; Singapore; Switzerland; Norway; Indonesia; Malaysia; Cambodia; Thailand; Korea; Vietnam; Taiwan; Bangladesh; Mexico; Japan; and India. Most of these are trading partners that had announced or already implemented trade agreements with the U.S. when IEEPA duties were still in place.
  • These Section 301 investigations will focus on “economies that appear to exhibit structural excess capacity and production in various manufacturing sectors, such as through large or persistent trade surpluses.”
  • What happens next: The USTR will open dockets for written comments on March 17, hold public hearings on May 5, and more. At the conclusion of each investigation, the USTR will present its findings and provide the president with its recommendations, which may include the imposition of tariffs.
  • The timelines for these processes are broad. Historically, timelines for Section 301 probes have generally ranged between 6 and 18 months before the recommendation phase, with tariffs typically implemented a few weeks later. However, it is possible that these investigations will proceed faster.
  • Note that the U.S.’s existing 10% global tariff, which President Trump imposed via Section 122, will expire on July 24, 2026. Section 122 permits the president to impose duties for up to 150 days, and can only be extended with congressional approval. Section 301, on the other hand, allows the president to impose long-term duties.
  • Shortly after the Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA tariffs, President Trump indicated that he would open new Section 232 investigations as well, which could also lay the groundwork for new long-term tariffs. There are currently nine Section 232 investigations that are already open.
• Universal IEEPA Duty Refunds: On March 6, the Court of International Trade (CIT) paused the enforcement of its March 4 universal IEEPA duty refund order while U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) readies a new system in the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) that will automatically issue refunds. CBP’s new system could launch as soon as 45 days from the date of the filing (March 6), or April 20. The actual directive of the CIT’s March 4 order—to provide universal IEEPA refunds—remains in place.
  • In the meantime, Flexport continues to advise customers to file protests with CBP. By filing protests as soon as possible, importers can keep their entries “live” and ensure they remain eligible for refunds, no matter what happens: a delayed system launch by CBP, an appeal from the government that modifies or invalidates the CIT’s order, or any other possible scenario. Flexport’s Trade Advisory group can help customers file protests.
  • Additionally, be sure to confirm ACE access and set up ACH details, calculate the total refund amount you’re owed with the Flexport Tariff Refund Calculator, conduct a comprehensive audit of your entries, and note refund implications for goods subject to Section 232 duties. Flexport’s Audit Your Customs Broker can automatically audit your entries, identify tariff stacking issues, and estimate duties you may have overpaid.
  • See our live blog on the IEEPA ruling and refunds for the latest updates on the CIT’s order, our recommended action items, and how Flexport can help.
• Other Recent Developments:
  • On March 11, President Trump reiterated his previous suggestion concerning a possible trade embargo against Spain. Just over a week earlier, President Trump stated that the U.S. may “cut off all trade with Spain,” following a dispute concerning the use of jointly operated military bases in Spain for U.S. operations targeting Iran. Following President Trump’s initial remarks on the matter, the European Commission affirmed its commitment to defending Spain and all EU member states “through [the EU’s] common trade policy.”
  • On March 4, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the U.S.’s 10% Section 122 tariff would likely soon rise to 15%. However, the tariff remains at 10%. Under Section 122, duties are capped at 15% and are only valid for 150 days.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Post-Lunar-New-Year recovery for bookings has been slower than anticipated, leading to a visible supply-demand imbalance.
  • Carrier capacity is bouncing back rapidly, expected to hit over 90% in the second half of March.
  • The Middle East conflict could lead to certain operational impacts on the TPEB: the diversion of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope on other trades may result in equipment shortages and congestion at major Asian hubs.
• Freight Rates:
  • Carriers have announced a General Rate Increase (GRI) for March 15.
  • Carriers have also introduced emergency fuel surcharges (EFSs) in response to spikes in bunker prices. EFSs for Canada will be implemented earlier, likely in late March, while EFSs for the U.S. are expected to take effect at the beginning of April. Meanwhile, other carriers with monthly bunkers have also increased April bunkers.
  • Carriers have pushed Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) to April.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Middle East Conflict:
  • The escalation in the Middle East and the withdrawal of war risk cover for the Persian Gulf have reinforced Cape of Good Hope routings as the reality for the foreseeable future.
  • The resulting extended transits have entirely wiped out the market’s previous structural overcapacity, significantly tightening effective vessel supply just as demand ramps back up.
  • Find the latest updates on ocean freight operations on our live Middle East escalation blog, and monitor container diversions and movements in real time with Flexport Atlas.
• Capacity and Demand:
  • The traditional post-Lunar-New-Year lull has concluded, and Chinese factories have resumed full production. However, this recovery in export volumes is immediately colliding with a severely stretched global fleet.
• Operations: Network reliability is rapidly deteriorating due to vessel bunching. Returning mega-ships are arriving off schedule, overwhelming terminal infrastructure. Yard utilization is as follows:
  • Rotterdam: ECT, 80%; Rotterdam World Gateway (RWG), 85%; Maasvlakte II (APMT MVII), 95%.
  • Hamburg: HHLA Container Terminal Altenwerder (CTA), 85%; Eurogate Container Terminal (CTH), 90%.
  • Southampton: 90%.
  • Singapore: 90%, with a wait time of 1.5 days.
• Freight Rates:
  • The pricing landscape has undergone a sharp reversal. Defying typical seasonal trends, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has posted consecutive week-on-week gains. This upward trend is driven by artificial supply constraints and rising operational costs, as opposed to a sudden boom in European consumer demand.
  • The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a surge in global crude prices. Carriers are facing massive, sudden spikes in costs for the marine fuel required for the significantly longer Cape of Good Hope routing.
  • Carriers have aggressively shifted their pricing strategy. Standard rate negotiations have taken a backseat to the rapid rollout of emergency bunker surcharges. With the rising SCFI, a genuine shortage of vessel space, and pressure to lock in higher baselines just weeks ahead of Q2 long-term contract negotiations, carriers are now pushing strict Freight All Kinds (FAK) increases for the second half of March.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Carriers are reporting 92%+ vessel utilization in early March across North Europe and the West Mediterranean. This is fueled by a sharp uptick in demand and widespread overbookings, with shippers frontloading volumes ahead of anticipated Q2 rate hikes and port congestion.
• Operations:
  • Most Northern European and Mediterranean ports are experiencing congestion, with berth delays of 1 to 4 days.
• Equipment:
  • Critical container and chassis shortages persist, notably in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Southern and Eastern Germany, and Portugal. This continues to drive inland delays of 2 to 4 days.
• Freight Rates:
  • Spot rates from Northern Europe to the U.S. East Coast are holding steady through mid-March.
  • Carriers are aggressively defending rate levels by announcing universal Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) across all major lines, effective late March to early April.
  • Multiple operators have also confirmed General Rate Increases (GRIs), alongside Rate Revision Increases (RRIs).

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Middle East Conflict:
  • ONE Majesty, a 6,700-TEU container ship, was impacted on March 11 while at anchor in the Persian Gulf. This ship operates on ONE’s WIN service, which connects India, Pakistan, Jebel Ali, and Sri Lanka to the U.S. East Coast. ONE has indicated that the vessel remains fully operational and seaworthy.
  • Find the latest updates on ocean freight operations on our live Middle East escalation blog, and monitor container diversions and movements in real time with Flexport Atlas.
• Capacity and Demand:
  • To the U.S. East Coast: The sudden return of two major services routing around the Cape of Good Hope will add blank sailings to the market in the coming weeks. Capacity has quickly tightened.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: Capacity remains available on base-port-to-base-port lanes but is growing increasingly constrained. Feeder services connecting Indian subcontinent cargo to mainline services are seeing higher utilization.
• Freight Rates:
  • To the U.S. East Coast: Rates are trending upward through March, driven by a combination of reduced short-term market capacity and increased demand for ex-India cargo following the U.S.’s removal of its oil-related tariff on India in early February.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: Rates are set to increase, given increased demand from India and the market environment on the TPEB into the Pacific Southwest (PSW).

Air

• India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka:
  • The region is experiencing severe delays and heavy backlogs at origin airports due to suspensions at major transit hubs. Carriers that are still operating are rerouting and increasing fuel loads, which has forced a sharp reduction in cargo capacity and nearly doubled costs on certain lanes week over week.
  • Find the latest updates on air cargo operations on our live Middle East escalation blog.
• North and South China:
  • Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB): The market is recovering steadily as post-holiday demand strengthens. Space for major gateways is tightening, leading to upward pressure on costs as operational expenses and fuel prices increase.
  • Far East Westbound (FEWB): This sector continues to face critical disruptions. Significant flight suspensions and air space closures due to the conflict in the Middle East have removed substantial belly and freighter capacity. Expect immediate, sharp cost spikes and extended transit times as carriers detour around affected zones.
• Taiwan:
  • Supply is contracting due to the Middle East conflict, with space to major hubs like Chicago and Los Angeles growing particularly tight. Many carriers are no longer accepting new bookings for Europe, or are only doing so at premium levels.
• Vietnam and Cambodia:
  • Both regions are seeing significant impacts on space availability. Cargo capacity is limited, and lead times for securing space have risen significantly on both Trans-Pacific and European lanes.
• South Korea:
  • Costs are climbing as seasonal low pricing periods conclude. While some capacity remains open for the immediate window, market levels are expected to see a gradual increase through the month.
• Malaysia and Thailand:
  • Global capacity is erratic, with major carriers fully booked through mid-March.
  • In Thailand, space is full on most routes to Europe, with longer-than-usual confirmation times for new bookings.
• Indonesia:
  • Air freight space is fully booked, with significant backlogs.
  • Demand is expected to surge further as the market nears the long Eid al-Fitr holiday period.

(Source: Flexport)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

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Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit time remained flat from China to the U.S. West Coast, and decreased from China to the U.S. East Coast and from China to North Europe.

Week to March 9, 2026

Transit time remained flat at 34 days from China to the U.S. West Coast; decreased from 54 to 53.2 days from China to the U.S. East Coast; and decreased from 59 to 58.2 days from China to North Europe.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.