Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• EU and India Strike Landmark Trade Agreement: On January 27, the EU and India announced a trade deal that will reduce duties on most goods over a phased period of several years. The agreement follows nearly two decades of trade talks, and is expected to take effect by the end of 2026. Provisions include:
  • India will reduce or eliminate tariffs on 96.6% of EU exports by value over a phased period, potentially doubling EU exports to India by 2032.
  • The EU will reduce or eliminate tariffs on 99.5% of Indian exports by value over a phased period. Upon the implementation of the agreement, the EU intends to immediately eliminate duties on Indian textiles, footwear, tea and coffee, and other labor-intensive goods.
  • India will gradually reduce its 110% duty rate on EU-origin motor vehicles to 10%, applicable to an annual quota of 250,000 EU vehicles.
  • India will reduce or eliminate prohibitive tariffs (i.e., above 36%) on certain EU agri-food products, including wine and olive oil. India will also eliminate tariffs on nearly all EU machinery, medical equipment, iron and steel, and more.
  • The deal comes amid a number of trade developments and ongoing negotiations with the U.S. Last week, President Trump announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on eight European trading partners due to a perceived lack of cooperation in the U.S.’s quest to purchase Greenland, but later called off the tariff after announcing a deal framework on Greenland that he had struck with NATO. And last August, President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on India over its purchases of Russian oil, bringing the total tariff rate on India to 50%.
• U.S.-EU Trade Developments:
  • At a January 26 meeting, the European Parliament delayed its decision on unfreezing approval of the trade agreement that the EU reached with the U.S. last summer. The European Parliament had suspended its approval of the trade deal last week, just hours after President Trump walked back plans to levy a 10% tariff related to Greenland on certain European trading partners. EU lawmakers will meet again on February 4.
  • While the U.S. implemented a minimum total tariff of 15% on EU goods last August, other provisions of the trade agreement have yet to take effect.
  • Additionally, the EU plans to extend the suspension of its countermeasures against the U.S., postponing retaliatory tariffs on €93 billion (about $109 billion)’s worth of U.S. goods for an additional six months. The EU’s existing suspension is due to expire next week.
• A Potential Tariff Increase on South Korea: President Trump announced plans to raise the reciprocal tariff rate on Korea, as well as Section 232 tariffs on Korean autos and lumber, from 15% to 25%. These duty increases await official confirmation via executive order or Federal Register notice.
  • In a January 26 Truth Social post, President Trump stated that “South Korea's legislature is not living up to its deal with the United States,” referring to the trade agreement terms that the two nations agreed upon last July and finalized last October. Certain provisions have yet to take effect: Korea had agreed to invest up to $20 billion in cash each year in the U.S. economy, for example, along with an additional $150 billion in the U.S. shipbuilding industry.
  • The U.S. reduced tariffs on Korea late last year. Most Korean goods, including autos, are currently subject to a minimum total tariff of 15%. Additionally, Korean furniture and vanity products are currently subject to a 15% tariff, as opposed to the 25% tariff on those products imposed on most other nations.
• Canada Denies Plans to Proceed with China Trade Deal: On January 25, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada does not intend to move forward with a trade deal with China. Prime Minister Carney’s remarks came one day after President Trump indicated plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada makes a trade deal with China.
  • The trade agreement in question involves a tariff rate quota for Chinese electric vehicles imported into Canada, along with reduced tariffs on Canadian canola seed products imported into China.
  • Currently, Canadian goods imported into the U.S. are subject to a 35% IEEPA “fentanyl” tariff.
• Electronic Refunds from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP): Next Friday (February 6), CBP will begin issuing all refunds electronically. CBP will no longer issue checks for refunds, except in limited circumstances.
  • To avoid delayed refunds, importers should confirm access to their Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) Portal account and start the electronic refund enrollment process as soon as possible.
  • Check out our blog for instructions on applying for an ACE Portal account, a step-by-step guide to setting up electronic refunds, and guidance for foreign importers of record.
• Other Recent Developments:
  • On January 19, President Trump announced a potential 200% tariff on French wine and champagne if France does not join his recently launched Board of Peace, an organization meant to “secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict.”
  • On January 15, the U.S. and Taiwan reached a trade agreement that will reduce the U.S.’s reciprocal tariff rate on Taiwan from 20% to no more than 15%, while also imposing a 15% cap on U.S. Section 232 duties on Taiwanese auto parts, timber, lumber, and wood derivative products. Additionally, Taiwanese businesses building new U.S. semiconductor capacity may import up to 2.5 times that planned capacity without paying Section 232 duties, with a lower preferential rate for above-quota imports.
  • As of January 15, certain advanced computing chips are subject to a 25% tariff. The order is limited in scope and contains multiple exclusions: semiconductors imported for use in U.S. data centers, repairs or replacements performed in the U.S., research and development in the U.S., and certain other domestic use cases are exempt from the new tariff.
  • Find the latest tariff and trade developments on our live blog.

Last week, we launched the Flexport Tariff Refund Calculator to help businesses scenario-plan ahead of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs. Instantly calculate total duties that are potentially eligible for refunds, break them down by duty category, and quickly understand your potential return if the Supreme Court orders refunds.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Capacity is holding at 80-85% in January, with a slight bump to 90% in early February.
  • A blank sailing period related to Lunar New Year capacity adjustments is expected to start in the second half of February and continue through the first week of March.
  • Volumes have remained steady since the December holiday season. This year’s pre-Lunar-New-Year rush—which has been pushed ahead by 3 to 4 weeks—has been “spread out,” partially due to the late holiday this year, in contrast to the sharp volume spikes seen in previous years. We have not seen any further uptick in volumes.
  • Space is generally open across most gateways.
• Freight Rates:
  • All carriers have withdrawn the February General Rate Increase (GRI), with some implementing further rate reductions. This reflects current oversupply in the market as rolling pool space remains open through Lunar New Year.
  • Carriers have confirmed and pushed Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) to March. With Lunar New Year just a couple weeks away, these actions indicate a lack of “peak pressure” in the current market.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • As carriers focus on schedule stability, the market has transitioned from an immediate pre-holiday peak to a consolidation phase.
  • With the majority of urgent pre-Lunar-New-Year bookings finalized, carriers are now prioritizing the accumulation of rolling pool to ensure sufficient vessel utilization throughout the extensive blank sailing programs scheduled for February. This strategic volume management is designed to mitigate the impact of the upcoming production slowdown in Asia.
• Operations at Asian Hubs: Operational friction continues to challenge network fluidity, particularly when it comes to transshipment and equipment availability.
  • Singapore is currently experiencing elevated congestion due to network knock-on effects, with extended container dwell times averaging 7.1 days and sustained yard density levels of approximately 80%.
  • Concurrently, dense fog in the Yangtze River Delta has resulted in intermittent delays of 2 to 3 days at Shanghai and Ningbo.
• Operations in Northern Europe: Destination terminals in Northern Europe continue to face high density and winter weather disruptions. These challenges have slowed landside flows.
  • At Rotterdam, critical congestion persists. Yard density at ECT is at 95%; Rotterdam World Gateway (RWG), 80-85%; and Maasvlakte II (APMT MVII), 90-95%. This has restricted the efficiency of barges and feeders.
  • Hamburg is similarly saturated. Eurogate Container Terminal (CTH) density has exceeded 95%, severely impacting dwell times and hinterland evacuation speed.
• Freight Rates:
  • Market indices are showing signs of stabilization and mild softening as demand urgency normalizes. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has recorded a moderate decrease since Week 3, reflecting the natural alignment of rates with the mid-February booking horizon now that immediate "rush" shipments have departed.
  • Carrier pricing strategies have shifted toward rate defense and continuity, as opposed to aggressive expansion. Major carriers are adjusting rate levels toward a stable baseline to secure consistent volume for February. This indicates normalization rather than volatility, aimed at maintaining a floor during the production slowdown period.
  • With February’s planned blank sailings expected to counterbalance the seasonal demand dip, rates are likely to remain within a predictable band. Significant downward fluctuations in rate levels are unlikely.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • North Europe and West Mediterranean: As we near the end of January, demand continues to undergo moderate increases. Volumes remain below peak levels due to ongoing port congestion, blank sailings, and softer post-holiday demand. According to some carriers, this trend may change in the next few months.
  • East Mediterranean: Demand is stronger than levels across the rest of Europe. For the time being, however, demand is not high enough to prompt carriers to announce Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) for February or March.
• Equipment:
  • Critical container and chassis shortages persist into late January, especially in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Southern and Eastern Germany, and Portugal.
• Freight Rates:
  • Rates remain stable across North Europe, the East Mediterranean, and the West Mediterranean.
  • Apart from CMA CGM, carriers have not announced any Peak Season Fees for February.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • To the U.S. East Coast: Even after an uptick in bookings at the beginning of January, space remains available on base-port-to-base-port lanes. CMA CGM and Maersk have both announced that their respective services are returning to Suez routings for each sailing.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: Heading into February, capacity remains available in light of supply dynamics on the TPEB into the U.S. West Coast and the upcoming Lunar New Year. Capacity is available on PS3, the sole direct service from India to the U.S. West Coast.
• Freight Rates:
  • To the U.S. East Coast: Carriers are reducing rates for February.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: Heading into February, rate levels remain low.

Air

• North China:
  • Trans-Pacific Eastbound demand is flat this week, despite the upcoming end of the month. General cargo bookings have leveled off after last week’s slight recovery.
  • Rate levels are holding steady, with no upward movement.
  • This lack of momentum has raised concerns that the typical pre-Lunar-New-Year peak may be muted this year, with some suppliers expected to release workers earlier for the holiday period. This could further suppress cargo volumes in the weeks ahead.
• South China:
  • As the market moves into the Lunar New Year peak period, demand is picking up while capacity continues to tighten. Significant flight cancellations due to major winter storms in the U.S. have impacted key hubs like New York (JFK) and Dallas (DFW), driving TPEB rates upward.
  • Meanwhile, the European market remains stable.
• Taiwan:
  • Trans-Pacific Eastbound demand is trending slightly upward toward the end of the month, resulting in higher rate levels.
  • The Far East Westbound market is also gaining momentum, with major players placing sizable bookings in the market.
• Vietnam:
  • Market demand is trending slightly upward, driven by new product introductions and month-end closing activity. This has led to a modest increase in rate levels.
  • Winter storms in the U.S. are impacting operations, with reports of space constraints to the U.S.—particularly into New York (JFK), Chicago (ORD), and Dallas (DFW).
• South Korea:
  • Market demand has remained stable. However, winter storms have resulted in constraints on outbound flights from Seoul (ICN) to major U.S. hubs, following several flight cancellations over the weekend.
• Malaysia:
  • The market is seeing a noticeable decline in demand. Freight rates on Trans-Pacific Eastbound lanes are holding steady, supported by sufficient capacity to serve most U.S. destinations.
  • Higher rate levels persist at select gateways like London (LHR). However, rates across the majority of Far East Westbound lanes remain stable, indicating a balanced market.
• Thailand:
  • The market remains stable, with slight improvement expected toward the end of the month.
  • Flight cancellations due to heavy storms are tightening connecting capacity to the U.S., particularly to the East Coast. Shippers are encouraged to book 3 to 5 days in advance to secure space.
• Indonesia:
  • Capacity at Jakarta (CGK) is currently constrained due to increased local demand, with congestion reported on services to Atlanta (ATL) and Chicago (ORD).
  • Major European gateways, particularly London (LHR), continue to experience elevated congestion levels.
  • Freight rates are seeing a slight upward trend on Trans-Pacific Eastbound lanes, while remaining stable across Far East Westbound lanes.
  • Customers are advised to plan for a lead time of 5 to 7 days.
• Indian Subcontinent:
  • Rates are currently stable across Trans-Pacific Eastbound and Far East Westbound sectors.
  • Demand is beginning to gain momentum ahead of Lunar New Year.
  • In Northern India, persistent thick winter fog has led to intermittent flight delays and cancellations. However, the impact on overall operations remains manageable.
  • Demand is rising in Bangladesh and Pakistan as the pre-holiday rush develops, leading to a surge in inquiries.
  • Similarly, Sri Lanka is seeing steady demand and a slight upward trend in pricing, particularly for European destinations.
  • Capacity remains generally available, but volumes are expected to increase. Shippers are encouraged to pre-book 4 to 5 days in advance to ensure space, especially for urgent shipments.

(Source: Flexport)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

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Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit time increased from China to the U.S. West Coast and China to the U.S. East Coast, and decreased from China to North Europe.

Week to January 26, 2026

Transit time increased slightly from 33 to 33.5 days from China to the U.S. West Coast; increased from 52.4 to 53.9 days from China to the U.S. East Coast; and decreased from 59.6 to 57.5 days from China to North Europe.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.