Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• Updates on U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP)’s Automatic Refund System: According to Court of International Trade (CIT) Judge Richard Eaton, who issued the initial March 4 order requiring universal IEEPA duty refunds, CBP has made “satisfactory” progress on building an automated IEEPA tariff refund system. The refund system, known as the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE), is being developed in phases.
  • Claim portal (70% complete): Importers and customs brokers will interface with CAPE through a new claim portal, which is 70% complete as of a March 12 update. Filers will upload a CSV list of entry summaries that included IEEPA tariffs, after which CBP will validate formatting, confirm that the submitter is the importer of record or the broker that filed the entry summaries, and more. CBP’s Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) will flag any errors for correction.
  • Mass duty recalculation (40% complete): Once a submission is accepted, CBP will use a mass processing program to strip IEEPA HTS numbers from entries and recalculate remaining duties owed under other tariff programs.
  • Review and liquidation/reliquidation (80% complete): CAPE will set entries to liquidate or reliquidate after an unspecified review window, which will allow CBP to conduct any necessary manual reviews. This module will calculate interest, and liquidations will occur Monday through Thursday.
  • Refund processing (60% complete): Refunds will be consolidated by importer of record and liquidation date. Importers can also select a third party to receive refunds on their behalf.
  • CBP indicated on March 6 that the full CAPE system would likely be ready to accept claims within 45 days. The CIT has requested another progress report by today (March 19). Check out our live blog on the IEEPA ruling and refunds for the latest refund timelines and guidance.
• IEEPA Duty Refund Action Items: As CBP continues to ready its automatic refund system, importers are encouraged to take action as soon as possible.
  • If you do not already have ACE access, set up your account by following these instructions. Additionally, importers and brokers must provide CBP with their bank account details for direct deposit of refunds. For guidance on setting up ACH refunds and adding or updating bank details, check out our blog.
  • Calculate the total refund amount you’re owed with the Flexport Tariff Refund Calculator, and break them down by duty category.
  • Conduct a comprehensive audit of your entries, and note refund implications for goods subject to Section 232 duties. Flexport’s Audit Your Customs Broker can automatically audit your entries, identify tariff stacking issues, and estimate duties you may have overpaid.
  • File protests with CBP. By filing protests as soon as possible, importers can keep their entries “live” and ensure they remain eligible for refunds, no matter what happens: a delayed system launch by CBP, an appeal from the government that modifies or invalidates the CIT’s order, or any other possible scenario. Flexport’s Trade Advisory group can help customers file protests.
• New Section 301 Investigations Into 60 U.S. Trading Partners: On March 12, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced new Section 301 investigations targeting 60 different U.S. trading partners. These investigations will determine whether these economies’ “failure to impose and effectively enforce a ban on the importation of goods produced with forced labor are unreasonable or discriminatory and burden U.S. commerce.” Imports from these trading partners comprised more than 99% of U.S. imports in 2025.
  • One day earlier, on March 11, the USTR initiated separate Section 301 investigations into 16 trading partners. These probes will focus on “economies that appear to exhibit structural excess capacity and production in various manufacturing sectors, such as through large or persistent trade surpluses.” Some trading partners—including China, the EU, Vietnam, and others—are targeted by both investigations.
  • Written comments and hearing requests are due on April 15, 2026. The USTR will hold public hearings on April 28, 2026. At the conclusion of each investigation, the USTR will present its findings and provide the president with its recommendations, which may include the imposition of tariffs.
  • Historically, timelines for Section 301 probes have generally ranged between 6 and 18 months before the recommendation phase, with tariffs typically implemented a few weeks later. It is possible that these investigations will proceed faster, given that the U.S.’s existing 10% Section 122 tariff is set to expire on July 24, 2026.
  • Shortly after the Supreme Court ruling against IEEPA tariffs, President Trump indicated that he would open new Section 232 investigations as well, which could also lay the groundwork for new long-term tariffs. There are currently nine Section 232 investigations that are already open.
• Section 122 Tariff Hearing: On April 10, 2026, the CIT will hold a hearing for a lawsuit concerning the legality of President Trump’s Section 122 tariffs. Filed earlier this month by 24 U.S. states, the lawsuit asserts that President Trump imposed Section 122 tariffs without a true “balance of payments” emergency. The plaintiffs also indicated that the recently implemented tariff exceeds Section 122’s authorized scope and has not been “uniformly applied with respect to product coverage,” referring to the tariff’s many product exclusions.
  • The plaintiffs have requested a summary judgment, or a court judgment without a full trial, at the April 10 hearing. The ruling may be appealed.
  • The upcoming hearing will involve a panel of three judges, none of whom are involved in the IEEPA case.
  • In the meantime, the U.S.’s current Section 122 tariff will remain in place until it expires on July 24, 2026. This case is expected to be expedited, as with recent cases involving IEEPA duties and refunds.
• The Post-IEEPA Tariff Landscape: The transition from country-specific IEEPA rates, capped rates, and other complex duty structures to a 10% Section 122 tariff has not produced uniform relief. Some U.S. trading partners now face higher combined tariff rates, while others are paying significantly less than they were a month ago.
  • Because the Section 122 tariff stacks on top of existing most-favored-nation (MFN) duties, many trading partners now face effective rates that exceed what they were paying under their IEEPA deals. For example, the U.K., the EU, Japan, and South Korea all face trade-weighted tariff increases under the post-IEEPA tariff regime.
  • Meanwhile, nations that faced the highest IEEPA duties have seen the greatest relief. These beneficiaries include China, which faced both “fentanyl” and reciprocal duty rates under IEEPA, as well as Brazil and India, whose goods had been subject to standalone IEEPA orders on top of reciprocal rates.
  • Businesses sourcing from countries that had negotiated favorable IEEPA rates may now face higher landed costs. As the landscape continues to evolve, the Flexport Tariff Simulator can help businesses stay on top of evolving landed costs, applicable tariffs, and complex trade rules.
  • Learn more about the elimination of IEEPA tariffs and its impact on different nations, responses from the world’s major trading blocs, and guidance for importers.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • While booking volumes have improved this week, low demand overall has resulted in a visible supply-demand imbalance.
  • Carrier capacity is bouncing back rapidly, expected to exceed 90% in the second half of March. Expect a possible surge of blank sailings from late March through April as carriers attempt to balance supply and demand.
  • The Middle East conflict could lead to certain operational impacts on the TPEB: the diversion of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope on other trades may result in equipment shortages and congestion at major Asian hubs.
• Freight Rates:
  • Carriers have continued with announcements for General Rate Increases (GRIs) for the second half of March. Some carriers have already implemented GRIs, which have taken effect for the second half of March.
  • Carriers have also introduced emergency fuel surcharges (EFSs) in response to spikes in bunker prices. EFSs for Canada will be implemented earlier, likely in late March, while EFSs for the U.S. are expected to take effect at the beginning of April. Meanwhile, other carriers with monthly bunkers have also increased April bunkers.
  • Carriers have pushed Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) to April.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Middle East Conflict:
  • The ongoing Middle East conflict has forced vessels to continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, artificially absorbing a portion of the market's excess capacity.
  • Concurrently, these disruptions have triggered severe port congestion. Asian transshipment hubs, notably Singapore and Tanjung Pelepas, are experiencing berthing delays and 80-85%+ yard utilization rates due to cargo rolling. Similarly, Northern European hubs are reporting critical yard density levels and prolonged import container dwell times.
  • Find the latest updates on ocean freight operations on our live Middle East escalation blog, and monitor container diversions and movements in real time with Flexport Atlas.
• Capacity and Demand:
  • Overall cargo volumes in the market remain subdued and actual import demand has softened. This structural weakness has been further exacerbated by ongoing inflationary pressures across Europe, which continue to suppress consumer spending and constrain overall appetite for inventory replenishment.
  • Carriers have implemented aggressive blank sailing programs in response to softened demand. Offered capacity for North Europe fell in March, recording consecutive week-on-week reductions of 12.7% and 5.2% during the first half of the month.
• Freight Rates:
  • Carriers are implementing emergency fuel surcharges, citing fuel supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. By introducing and adjusting these surcharges, carriers can better control booking volumes, test whether the market will accept higher overall transportation costs, and enforce a rigid price floor.
  • Rates are expected to remain relatively stable, with a slight upward trend. This outlook is driven by carriers' aggressive surcharges and capacity management tactics, along with sluggish demand levels in the market.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Carriers are reporting 93%+ vessel utilization across Northern Europe and the West Mediterranean, driven by strong demand surges, widespread overbookings, and frontloading ahead of Q2 General Rate Increases (GRIs) and persistent port congestion.
• Operations:
  • Most of Northern Europe and the Mediterranean continue to face congestion, with berthing delays of 1 to 4 days and yard utilization above 80%.
• Equipment:
  • Critical container and chassis shortages persist, notably in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Southern and Eastern Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands. This continues to drive inland delays of 2 to 4 days due to congestion and driver constraints.
• Freight Rates:
  • Spot rates from Northern Europe to the U.S. East Coast continue to hold stable. Carriers are defending levels via a universal Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) of $400-800/FEU, effective late March to early April across major lines.
  • MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and others have confirmed GRIs of $500-900/FEU for April 1-15, alongside Rate Revision Increases (RRIs).

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • To the U.S. East Coast: Capacity remains tight through March. The sudden return of two major services routing around the Cape of Good Hope will add blank sailings to the market in the coming weeks, along with planned structural blanks.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: Capacity remains available on base-port-to-base-port lanes but is growing increasingly constrained. Feeder services connecting Indian subcontinent cargo to mainline services are seeing higher utilization.
• Freight Rates:
  • To the U.S. East Coast: General Rate Increases (GRIs) implemented across the market are holding. Rates trending upward through March, driven by reduced short-term capacity and increased demand for ex-India cargo following the U.S.’s removal of its oil-related tariff on India in early February.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: Rates are set to increase due to increased demand from India.

Air

• India:
  • The market remains extremely volatile. While capacity is slowly stabilizing as key routes resume, backlogs remain high and long-term pricing cannot be guaranteed. Significant fuel surcharge increases are expected this week.
  • Find the latest updates on global air freight operations on our live Middle East escalation blog.
• Bangladesh:
  • A severe capacity crunch persists.
  • Rates to Europe and the U.S. have seen dramatic increases, and terminal backlogs are growing. Rate validity is extremely short-lived.
• Sri Lanka and Pakistan:
  • Robust demand in Sri Lanka, particularly for garments, is driving a shift from ocean to air and leading to daily price changes.
  • In Pakistan, congestion and fuel surcharges have maintained high costs. However, capacity is gradually easing.
• North China:
  • Trans-Pacific Eastbound: The market is seeing demand-driven cost increases for shipments to the U.S. West Coast, fueled by robust ecommerce and automotive volumes. Capacity to the U.S. East Coast remains relatively stable.
  • Far East Westbound: This lane is under extreme pressure due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Many regional carriers remain restricted, pushing costs upward and extending transit times as flights get rerouted.
  • Fuel impact: A sharp rise in global jet fuel prices is expected to trigger near-term fuel surcharge increases across all lanes.
• South China:
  • The region is experiencing high volatility this month. Fuel surcharges are scheduled to undergo a significant increase starting March 20.
  • Overall demand is rising, which is keeping Far East Westbound capacity extremely tight. Trans-Pacific Eastbound space is also tightening amid continued volume growth.
  • Bookings for major Middle Eastern hubs have reopened, but are currently restricted to a standby basis.
• Taiwan:
  • Rates have edged upward due to rising demand.
  • While some regional flights have resumed, capacity to major U.S. hubs remains tight.
  • We recommend a 7-day advance booking window.
• Vietnam:
  • Market demand surged in mid-March, driven by financial year-end shipping peaks and congestion at major carrier hubs.
  • While pricing for U.S.-bound lanes cooled slightly last week, capacity to Europe remains critical.
• Cambodia:
  • Capacity is extremely tight, with high pricing levels for both U.S. and European lanes. Plan at least 7 to 10 days in advance to secure space.
• South Korea:
  • Capacity is tightening significantly, pushing lead times for new bookings into next week.
  • As rising fuel surcharges lift overall market costs, backlogs continue to grow—most notably for shipments headed to Europe.
• Malaysia:
  • Demand for U.S. and European space is high after the partial reopening of Middle Eastern air space. While some flights have resumed, others remain suspended.
  • Given stable but high pricing, shippers are encouraged to pre-book 7 days in advance.
• Thailand:
  • Demand remains steady.
  • Congestion persists on European lanes, despite partial air space reopenings.
  • High oil prices continue to apply upward pressure on all major trade routes.
• Indonesia:
  • Space remains tight due to the ongoing regional crisis.
  • The Eid al-Fitr holiday rush between March 19 and March 24 will further complicate logistics. Domestic road restrictions for heavy trucks, in effect through March 29, are impacting inland transport.

(Source: Flexport)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts to your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

Webinars

North America Freight Market Update Live

Thursday, April 9 @ 9:00am PT / 12:00pm ET

Flexport’s Native NetSuite Integration: How Tracksmith Automated Their Global Supply Chain

Available On-Demand

Tariff Trends 2026: Expert Insights on the Evolving U.S. Tariff Landscape

Available On-Demand

Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit time increased from China to the U.S. West Coast, and decreased from China to the U.S. East Coast and from China to North Europe.

Week to March 16, 2026

Transit time increased from 34 to 34.8 days from China to the U.S. West Coast; decreased from 53.2 to 51.5 days from China to the U.S. East Coast; and decreased from 58.6 to 55.6 days from China to North Europe.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.