Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• BIS Proposes New Section 232 Inclusions for Cables, Cranes, and Other Copper, Steel, or Aluminum Goods: The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) published a Federal Register notice proposing to add a new batch of products to Section 232 tariff coverage, generally at 25% but 15% for cranes and agricultural machinery.
  • The list spans aluminum powder, brass-wind instruments, welding machine parts, floor safes, fire extinguishers, heat exchanger and hydraulic engine parts, mobile cranes and lifting frames, several trailer categories, and filled steel containers for certain chemicals.
  • Electric conductor cables stand out as the category likely to see the broadest impact, since duties would apply to the value of the cable itself.
  • Public comments are due to BIS within 21 days of publication, August 27th 2026.
  • Flexport's trade compliance team has flagged that a few of the listed HTSUS codes look like errors or duplicates. Two of them already carry 25% Section 232 aluminum-derivative tariffs dating back to April 6, so importers should verify each code against their own product lines rather than assume the whole list is net-new exposure. The Flexport Tariff Simulator can help confirm which codes actually change your landed cost.
• Two Rate Changes Worth Tracking: Quartz Surface Products and U.K. Pharma: A pair of narrower actions adjusted duty rates for specific products and countries this week.
  • The White House issued a Section 201 action in late July aimed at shielding domestic quartz surface product manufacturers from import competition. The specific tariff mechanics haven't been finalized in trade systems yet, so importers of this commodity should expect more detail soon rather than assume current rates hold.
  • Affected HTS codes are 6810.99.0020, 6810.99.0040, and 7020.00.6000 under this proposed Section 201 action. Within the quota, tariffs will start at 25 percent in year one and gradually decrease to 23 percent, 21 percent, and 19 percent in years two through four, respectively. For imports exceeding the quota, tariffs will begin at 50 percent in year one and step down slightly each year to 49 percent, 48 percent, and 47 percent by year four.
  • Separately, the duty on patented pharmaceuticals from the United Kingdom dropped from 10% to 0%, effective July 31.
• Section 301 Forced-Labor Tariffs Draw a New State Lawsuit as China Responds: Opposition to the Section 301 forced-labor tariffs kept building on two fronts this week.
  • Oregon and several other states filed a new complaint challenging the tariffs, adding government plaintiffs to the private company suits already working through the Court of International Trade.
  • China unveiled its own countermeasures against the U.S., citing both the forced-labor tariff actions and recent FCC restrictions as its rationale.
• Enforcement Roundup: A $5.15 Million Evasion Penalty and Rising CTPAT/UFLPA Scrutiny: Several enforcement-side developments this week point to tighter scrutiny across supply chains.
  • A Taiwanese LED manufacturer agreed to pay $5.15 million to resolve allegations that it ran a tariff-evasion scheme.
• CBP, FDA, and Other Agency Updates: Several agencies published routine but relevant updates this week.
  • The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will close its 2027 Voluntary Qualified Importer Program (VQIP) application window on Sept. 1. Importers who want expedited entry for the coming year should apply well before the deadline.
  • FDA also issued new and revised import alerts on Aug. 4.
  • USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reminded users it has moved to electronic-only payments.

Ocean

• Ocean market news:
  • Two separate disruptions remain active in the market this week, each with its own cause and trade impact.
  • The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial transit, a condition in place since late February. Daily transits have run near 10 vessels against a typical rate near 88 a day, and a tanker was struck while transiting the strait's southern corridor on August 1.
  • Talks between the parties on a fee framework for maritime services in the strait continue, with one side pushing for mandatory charges once a toll-free window expires around August 17 and the other favoring a voluntary, services-based fee model. No agreement has been reached.
  • The Red Sea disruption is a separate event, active since late 2023, that continues to force most Asia-Europe and Asia-U.S. East Coast cargo around the Cape of Good Hope instead of through the Suez Canal.
  • This disruption deepened in the back half of July when a new blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping specifically was declared, and at least seven vessels bound for Saudi ports have turned back as a result. This is a distinct and narrower escalation layered on top of the existing Cape diversion, not a continuation of it, and it warrants separate monitoring.
  • Blank sailing activity across major East-West trades is tracking at 58 cancelled sailings out of 723 planned from the week of August 3 through the week of August 31, a cancellation rate near 8%.
  • Global schedule reliability came in at 63.1% for the second quarter, with average vessel delays reaching 5.49 days — the worst quarterly reading since 2022 — driven largely by the ongoing Middle East disruptions.
  • Separately, tariff-driven front-loading pushed a 7.1% surge in second-quarter laden imports at West Coast ports, concentrated around the Southern California gateways, which strained equipment repositioning and terminal efficiency.
  • Global container fleet capacity stood at roughly 21.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in July, with new deliveries this year equal to about 6% of the existing fleet against a 2.5-4% demand growth forecast. That imbalance keeps a structural oversupply risk in play into the fall.

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Capacity has recovered and stabilized slightly above the July average, now around 88–90%. Recent vessel schedule disruptions east of China — caused by typhoon activity — are leading to missed connections and port congestion at certain origins.
  • Demand forecast remains stable and strong through August, particularly to the East Coast and Gulf. The Panama Canal situation continues to tighten available space, so carriers are being more selective on cargo due to weight restrictions.
• Freight Rates:
  • The August 1st rate increase has been successfully implemented and is holding, supported by sustained high demand.
  • Most carriers are implementing a Panama Canal Surcharge given the Panama Canal situation.
• Recommendation:
  • Book 3–4 weeks in advance to secure space, especially for East Coast and Gulf destinations.
  • Consider alternative routing via the West Coast given the tightening capacity situation for East Coast and Gulf lanes.
  • Consider premium service options for time-sensitive or urgent cargo.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Blank sailing activity eased to roughly 2.2% this week, down sharply from about 11.8% last week. Forward data show a further step down to 0% next week; treat forward weeks as directional only.
  • Underlying demand remains firm, but this week's Saudi-linked blockade adds fresh uncertainty to any near-term normalization of Suez Canal transit. Most large-vessel capacity continues to route via the Cape of Good Hope.
• Freight Rates: Spot rate indices on the Asia-Europe corridor have started to slip after an aggressive multi-week run-up, with carriers now leaning more on capacity discipline than fresh increases to defend current levels.
• Recommendation:
  • Continue planning for Cape of Good Hope transit times through the third quarter.
  • Monitor the Saudi-linked blockade closely and separately from the broader Red Sea diversion; a further widening would be a material new disruption layered on top of the existing routing.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Blank sailings dropped to 0% this week (down from ~16.0%), but forward data indicates a sharp jump to ~17.1% next week. Overall deployed capacity on the North Europe to U.S. East Coast corridor remains at a multi-year high.
  • Summer factory closures typically slow trade on this lane, but market activity is bucking historical trends. Total import volumes from North Europe to the U.S. remain resilient — tracking at elevated levels last seen during COVID — with August projected to maintain July's performance level.
• Freight Rates: Elevated corridor capacity continues to exert downward pressure on rates, though unseasonal volume strength is helping stabilize the market floor.
• Recommendation:
  • Confirm booking space immediately for the week of August 10 to navigate the 17.1% blanking spike.
  • Verify whether projected blankings fully materialize before locking into longer-term allocations.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA (ISC)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • The continued streak of increased demand since May against the backdrop of significant reduction in supply on the corridor has exacerbated the space constraints experienced during this peak season.
  • Growing constraints and congestion at Middle East ports that continue to service cargo in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman are trickling down to other major ports in the region — Nhava Sheva, Mundra, and Colombo.
• Freight Rates:
  • Rate levels for the major corridor, Northwest India to USEC base ports, have reached the highest they have been since the decline from the COVID-era peak.
  • Rate levels to the US East Coast continue to rise, whereas rates from ISC to the US West Coast did not have a GRI for the first half of August.
• Recommendation:
  • Secure space early given tight capacity and an extended peak season, and build extra time into routings for origin port delays.
  • Request shippers confirm Cargo Ready Date (CRD) as soon as possible.

Air

• Find the latest updates on global air freight operations on our Middle East escalation blog.
• North China (PVG/PEK):
  • Transpacific rates to the U.S. West Coast fell again this week as demand softened, and carriers are open to negotiating on price — a reversal from the firmer conditions 2 weeks ago.
  • East Coast demand is also softening, but capacity is still constrained by high-temperature payload restrictions carried over from last week, holding East Coast rates flat to slightly down.
  • Demand into Europe stayed weak, with rates holding at the low end of the recent range.
• South China (HKG/SZX/CAN):
  • Transpacific demand ticked up over the weekend on general cargo, and rates are trending upward.
  • A new product launch is expected from late August through mid-September, which should add further demand into U.S.-bound lanes.
  • Demand to Europe stayed soft, with conditions remaining subdued.
  • Separately, Hong Kong-to-Europe volumes are down 23% year over year, compounded by Typhoon Noul's cancellation of roughly 350 flights at Hong Kong International Airport on July 26 and the end of the EU's de minimis exemption for parcel shipments from China.
• Taiwan (TPE):
  • U.S.-bound demand held steady week over week, with rates expected to firm slightly.
  • Europe demand stayed slack.
  • Book 5 to 7 days ahead of departure to secure space.
• Vietnam (SGN/HAN):
  • Transpacific rates rose last week, driven by higher fuel costs and stronger demand.
  • Demand to Europe held firm.
  • Space remains open, but book 5 to 7 days ahead to lock in the best schedule.
• Cambodia (PNH):
  • Demand remained high and space stayed congested, keeping rates elevated on both the transpacific and Europe lanes.
  • Book 7 days ahead to secure space.
• Korea (ICN):
  • The market is tight. Transshipment flights have no space until the third week of August, though direct flights still have some capacity.
  • Space to Europe is comparatively better, but bookings must be made 3 to 4 days ahead of departure.
• Malaysia (KUL):
  • Demand held stable on both the transpacific and Europe lanes.
  • Book 5 to 7 days ahead of departure to protect against potential swings.
• Thailand (BKK):
  • The market stayed stable with no major shift in demand.
  • Carriers are accommodating ad hoc requests with relatively open space.
  • Book 5 to 7 days ahead of departure.
• Indonesia (CGK):
  • Demand ticked up and capacity started to tighten on the transpacific lane, pushing rates higher on deferred service.
  • Europe-bound rates held flat.
  • Book 7 to 10 days ahead of the cargo-ready date.
• India (BOM/DEL/MAA/BLR):
  • Demand stayed high for a second straight week, with shippers continuing to shift from ocean to air to bypass maritime bottlenecks. That shift is straining capacity on India-to-U.S. lanes.
  • Book about 1 week ahead of departure.
• Broader Indian subcontinent (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan):
  • Sri Lanka: Schedules are running on time and base rates are stable, but space is tight on a rise in perishable volumes; fuel surcharges are easing.
  • Bangladesh: The Europe lane's schedules are reliable and space is available, while the U.S. lane is less reliable and space stays tight.
  • Pakistan: Schedules are reliable, but rates are elevated and quotes hold for only 1 to 2 days.

(Source: Flexport)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts on your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

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Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit time increased from China to the U.S. West Coast, increased from China to the U.S. East Coast, and increased from China to North Europe.

Week to August 3, 2026

Transit time increased slightly from 36 days to 36.5 days from China to the U.S. West Coast; increased from 58.2 days to 60 days from China to the U.S. East Coast; and increased slightly from 57 days to 57.6 days from China to North Europe.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.