Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• Canada Import Bans: Motorcycles, Dairy, and Alcohol Products Barred Starting Sept. 29: The White House issued a set of presidential actions that go beyond tariffs entirely, banning several categories of Canadian goods from entering the U.S. outright starting Sept. 29.
  • Canadian motorcycles with engines over 800cc are barred under one order.
  • A second order bars Canadian whey, molasses, and non-alcoholic beer.
  • A third order bars Canadian beer, brandy, rum, and wine, though bulk containers like large vats and casks are exempt. Only direct-to-consumer packaging, including cans, bottles, kegs, and boxes, is affected.
  • Trade groups are calling this the first use of an outright import ban under Section 338, covering close to $1 billion worth of Canadian goods.
• Section 338 Tariff List Expands Again, and Aluminum Stacking Hits 100%: Separate from the new import bans, the administration added a long list of products to the existing 50% Section 338 tariff on Canadian goods, effective Sept. 15.
  • One order adds cheese, animal hides and leather, motorboats, and outboard motors to the list.
  • A second order adds paper products, electrodes, signs, golf carts, furniture, mattresses, and LED lamps, along with aluminum profiles, bars, rods, tubes, and pipes.
  • The aluminum additions don't get an exemption for already carrying Section 232 duties, so the combined rate hits 100%. Trade experts see this as the single biggest impact of the whole update.
  • The same stacking applies to iron and steel columns, posts, and beams, plus aluminum pipe and profile shapes already subject to Section 232, and to some drone parts that previously avoided Section 338 because they paid Section 232 instead. Those drone parts now pay both, for a combined 150%.
  • Two items came off the list as of Sept. 15 under the same alcoholic-beverages order: whiskies and liqueurs or cordials in containers over 4 liters. Smaller containers of the same products still carry the 338 duty, and table salt was removed from Section 338 coverage entirely.
  • Given how many product categories are affected and how the stacking rules keep shifting, importers with Canadian exposure should re-run their landed costs in the Flexport Tariff Simulator rather than rely on last month's numbers.
• Save the Date: Sept. 16 Webinar Will Cover the Expiring Section 122 Tariffs: Flexport's next Tariff Trends webinar is Sept. 16 at 9 a.m. PT / 12 p.m. ET, with Trade Advisory Director Jenn Park and Senior Trade Advisory Associate Calum Coulter covering the latest updates and tariff news.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Carriers are deploying capacity in full. Blank sailing bookings stay under 1% through mid-September, but that's expected to shift: sailings for the Golden Week window are still under review with carriers, and current signals point to more blank sailings through and after the holiday. The bigger constraint on effective supply right now is congestion: the port disruption noted above is keeping vessel delays elevated at Shanghai and Ningbo and adding to schedule volatility.
  • The Panama Canal Authority pushed back its planned draft restriction again given improved rainfall — a reprieve on vessel size — but daily transit slots stay capped at a reduced level of 34 vessels a day, set to fall to 32, and canal-related surcharges rise further from September 15.
• Freight Rates: Asia-to-U.S. container rates climbed again across both coasts, continuing to rise despite the ongoing congestion.
• Recommendation: Shippers should build extra buffer into cargo-ready dates around Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan while congestion persists, book early given the compounding effect of congestion and the coming capacity pull-back into Golden Week, and keep a confirmed Panama Canal reservation — or consider routing via the West Coast with inland trucking — for East Coast or Gulf cargo.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Carriers are keeping capacity fully deployed, with blank sailings staying near zero through most of the forecast window. One week in mid-October, the most distant week in the outlook, shows a pull-back to around 16%, but that far out the figure is still likely to move as bookings firm up.
  • The China port disruption noted above adds origin-side schedule risk on top of that.
  • The Suez routing shift also touches this lane directly, as noted above: a shorter transit is now available on a larger share of the network, and shippers can treat it as a genuine, if still partial, option that keeps expanding carrier by carrier.
  • Separately, the Northern Europe labor action noted above adds schedule risk at Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Hamburg, and Zeeland.
• Freight Rates:
  • Rates continue to ease: container rate indices out of Northern Europe and the Mediterranean both declined again, extending a steady decline that has run since late July.
  • The mechanism here is capacity, not weak demand alone: the Suez shift is effectively adding capacity back to the lane by shortening transit times, and that is doing more to pressure rates than any drop in bookings.
• Recommendation: Shippers moving through the Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Hamburg, and Zeeland gateways should build in extra buffer around the strike dates and expect elevated yard congestion at Rotterdam and Hamburg to persist a while longer.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Demand is the story here, not just capacity. Bookings on this lane recently reached their highest level in over a year, supported by rising European exports.
  • Carriers pulled a meaningful share of capacity in August — roughly 9% of scheduled Europe-to-North America capacity — to support rates, and that capacity is back to fully deployed this week; the outlook ahead shows only scattered, modest pull-backs rather than a sustained trend.
  • Port congestion adds to the picture: Northern Europe hubs including Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg are running elevated yard utilization, compounded by the labor action noted above, while on the U.S. side, Charleston and Norfolk are seeing extended vessel waiting times and import dwell, even as New York/New Jersey stays fluid.
  • From Northern Europe, capacity discipline, not demand strength, is driving this lane. Carriers are reporting that vessels are full, but they are also requesting more NACs, allowing shippers to book 15% above their minimum quantity commitment (MQC), with more and more vessels showing green.
• Freight Rates: Rates firmed over the past 2 weeks on the back of that capacity discipline and the stronger demand, though some of the increases carriers have announced for September may not fully hold, given how quickly this market can turn.
• Recommendation: Shippers should book several weeks ahead to secure allocation on Northern Europe and Mediterranean gateways given the tight space, and build in extra buffer around the Northern Europe strike-affected ports.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA (ISC)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Space remains the binding constraint on this corridor. Demand is running near last summer's peak, while capacity stays reduced by the trickle-down effects of the regional conflict and the Strait of Hormuz escalation noted above, which continues to push Middle East transshipment volumes onto strings serving the Indian subcontinent and add congestion at those hubs.
  • Loading timelines have improved slightly: premium service is getting cargo loaded within about 2 weeks, standard service within 3 to 4 weeks, and named-account contracts within 4 to 5 weeks.
  • Separately, the equipment dispute at Mundra, one of India's largest container gateways, has escalated rather than resolved over the past week: empty containers are piling up and freight movement has largely halted as the standoff between the port operator and depot operators continues.
  • On routing, the Suez shift noted above continues to extend to strings serving the Indian subcontinent.
  • Looking further out, export volumes tied to the Diwali holiday this fall are expected to add further pressure on available space, with U.S. East Coast space likely to stay tight into mid-to-late November.
• Freight Rates: Rates may be nearing a peak, with early signs of easing, though it will take time for that to show up as more available space.
• Recommendation:
  • Shippers moving through Mundra should build in extra buffer and consider alternate gateways, such as nearby Pipavav, while the dispute persists.
  • Shippers should treat faster transit times as a developing, still partial option rather than a guarantee, and keep monitoring, given that both the Mundra dispute and the Strait of Hormuz escalation remain unresolved.
  • Push shippers to confirm CRD as soon as possible to secure bookings in a timely manner.

Air

• North China (PVG/PEK):
  • Demand remains weak into September, continuing a months-long pattern.
  • Airlines are deploying planned Q4 peak season capacity anyway, widening the gap between supply and demand.
  • Headline rates are flat week over week, though carriers are quietly discounting to fill empty space.
  • Europe-bound demand stays weak, with London Heathrow the one gateway showing its second straight week of a modest pickup, while Amsterdam and Frankfurt hold flat.
• South China (HKG/SZX/CAN):
  • TPEB demand holds steady week over week as airlines deploy planned Q4 capacity, and ad hoc charter space is available to Los Angeles for Q4.
  • FEWB demand is stable, supported by Apple's new product cycle, with forwarders holding space into next week to protect extra tonnage.
  • Hong Kong-to-Europe volumes remain well below year-ago levels following July's end of the EU's low-value import exemption, though weekly tonnage has regained ground for two straight weeks off the summer low.
• Taiwan (TPE):
  • U.S.-bound demand is steady week over week, with rates starting to firm.
  • Book 5 to 7 days ahead to secure space.
• Vietnam (SGN/HAN):
  • The market returns to normal operations this week following the post-holiday lull.
  • Apple's September product cycle and approaching peak season are expected to tighten rates and space on TPEB routes, while FEWB stays comparatively more stable but still subject to swings.
• Cambodia (PNH):
  • Rates are expected to hold steady week over week.
  • Space stays tight as peak season approaches, even though demand has not meaningfully picked up yet.
• Korea (ICN):
  • September has started without the peak season volume bump shippers expected.
  • Rates and demand are largely unchanged from last week on both TPEB and FEWB.
• Malaysia (KUL):
  • TPEB demand and rates are stable, while FEWB pricing has softened.
  • Inbound volume increases are congesting hubs on TPEB routings; book 5 to 7 days ahead given the congestion.
• Thailand (BKK):
  • The market is relatively stable heading into September, with rates holding at prior levels and airlines able to support ad hoc capacity on request.
  • A fuel surcharge increase took effect September 1.
  • Book 5 to 7 days ahead.
• Indonesia (CGK):
  • Jakarta's CGK airport has been closed since September 6 after volcanic ash from the Mount Anak Krakatau eruption affected surrounding airspace, with all flights canceled until further notice.
  • The closure comes during peak demand, and spot rates out of CGK are likely to see upward pressure in the short term.
  • Cargo is expected to shift to alternate gateways, Surabaya (SUB) and Denpasar (DPS), to bypass the congestion.
• India (BOM/DEL/MAA/BLR):
  • Demand keeps climbing week over week as shippers move cargo from ocean to air to bypass maritime bottlenecks on India-to-U.S. lanes.
  • Book 5 days ahead to secure space.
• Broader Indian subcontinent (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan):
  • Sri Lanka: Schedules are reliable outside of two carriers; fuel surcharges are easing while Middle East carrier space is tightening on rising perishable volumes.
  • Bangladesh: The EU lane is reliable with open space, while the U.S. lane is tighter.
  • Pakistan: Schedules are reliable, but rates are elevated and airlines are quoting only 1 to 2 days of rate validity.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

Webinars

Tariff Trends 2026: Expert Insights on the Evolving U.S. Tariff Landscape

Wednesday, September 16 @ 9:00 am PT / 12:00 pm ET

Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit time decreased from China to the U.S. West Coast, U.S. East Coast, and North Europe.

Week to September 6, 2026

Transit time decreased from 40 days to 32 days from China to the U.S. West Coast; decreased from 64 days to 63 days from China to the U.S. East Coast; and decreased from 63.0 days to 62.5 days from China to North Europe.