Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• Court of International Trade (CIT) Rejects Government's Stay Request in Section 122 Case: On May 20, the CIT denied the government's motion to stay enforcement of the CIT's ruling against Section 122 tariffs. However, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit's temporary administrative stay, issued on May 12, remains in effect. As a result, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will continue to apply and collect 10% Section 122 duties for all importers—including the three specific plaintiffs granted relief by the initial CIT judgment on May 7.
  • In denying the stay request, the CIT found that the government's harm claims were speculative, given the injunction's narrow scope that applies to only three specific plaintiffs. The CIT also held that forcing plaintiffs to keep paying duties that have already been ruled unlawful would cause them substantial injury.
  • The Federal Circuit will decide whether to grant a full stay pending appeal. If it denies the stay, CBP would need to stop collecting Section 122 duties from those three specific plaintiffs and begin processing refunds. If the Federal Circuit grants the stay, the judgment would remain frozen through the appeal.
  • Resolution will likely take time. The Federal Circuit may take months to reach a final decision, at which point the case could then move to the Supreme Court. However, the 10% Section 122 tariff is set to expire on July 24, 2026, which could reduce the urgency for expedited review at the high court level.
  • That said, if the CIT's ruling is ultimately upheld, refunds would likely flow through CBP's existing infrastructure—potentially through the CAPE system already being used for IEEPA refunds. However, it is unclear how far those potential refunds would extend.
  • In the meantime, importers can assess their exposure and take action where appropriate. Assess how much you've paid in Section 122 duties since they took effect in February, track your entry liquidation status, monitor the appeal, and more. Check out our blog for more details and guidance.
• EU Close to Implementing U.S. Trade Deal: On May 20, the European Council and the European Parliament reached a provisional deal for implementing the tariff provisions of the EU-U.S. trade deal, an agreement first struck last summer.
  • The agreement would remove the EU's remaining duties on U.S. industrial goods, open preferential access for certain U.S. agricultural products, and extend the EU's existing suspension of duties on lobster products.
  • The agreement also features several protective mechanisms for the EU: a suspension clause; a sunset provision that will null the agreement at the end of 2029 unless renewed; a clause that will reinstate EU most-favored-nation (MFN) duties if U.S. duties on steel and aluminum derivatives remain above 15% after December 31, 2026; and more.
  • EU lawmakers are expected to vote on the agreement in mid-June. President Trump had previously indicated that he would give the EU until July 4 to follow through on its trade deal commitments and "cut their tariffs to zero," warning that he would increase tariffs to "much higher levels" if the EU did not comply by that date.
• Section 232 Tariff Offsets for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (MHDVs) and Autos: In a May 15 notice, the Department of Commerce outlined procedures for manufacturers seeking Section 232 tariff offsets on MHDV parts. These offsets do not currently cover buses or certain auto and truck engines.
  • As with auto parts, Section 232 offsets for MHDV manufacturers are capped at 3.75% of the total value of all MHDVs they assemble in the U.S. Eligible MHDVs include those assembled between November 1, 2025, when Section 232 truck tariffs took effect, and October 31, 2030.
  • The notice also extends the offset window for auto parts manufacturers through April 30, 2030.
  • The Department of Commerce will define a separate offset process for MHDV and automobile engines later on, and is in the process of deciding whether offsets will apply to buses.
  • Applications for MHDV part offsets opened on May 15.
• Recent CAPE Developments: CBP is expected to provide its next CAPE update to the CIT on May 26, 2026. CBP filed its most recent CAPE update last week. As of May 11, 2026:
  • 126,237 CAPE declarations have been submitted since CAPE's launch on April 20, 2026. Of those, 86,874 passed file validations.
  • 15,123,221 individual entries with IEEPA duties passed entry-specific validations and were accepted for the removal of IEEPA duties. 8,338,081 of those accepted entries have been liquidated and/or reliquidated without IEEPA duties.
  • The anticipated refund and interest amount for those ~8.3 million entries is ~$35.46 billion (principal plus interest). Only a portion of processed entries have been consolidated and transmitted to the Department of the Treasury for payment; the rest are still being consolidated by importer of record and liquidation date.
  • 1,880 refunds are stuck because the importer or their authorized designee has not provided their ACH account information. Importers should confirm that their ACH details are on file to avoid delays.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Given a reduction in blank sailings, capacity has recovered to over 80% after last week's dip to 78%. The lingering ripple effects of those blank sailings, combined with rising demand, are constraining space across all gateways. Some strings are beginning to experience rollings.
  • The majority of space is booked through the end of May, and June space is filling rapidly. Shippers with time-sensitive cargo are encouraged to plan ahead and consider Freight All Kinds (FAK) or premium service levels for urgent shipments.
• Freight Rates:
  • The May 15 rate increase remains in effect. Carriers have announced an additional rate increase for June 1 as surging volumes tighten June space, and with FAK space already scarce on select strings.
  • Emergency bunker surcharges (EBSs) remain active, with the next validity review for June expected to be finalized by the end of May.
  • All carriers are expected to roll out a Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) on June 1, given rising spot market rates and tightening capacity.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Booking volumes have surged earlier than usual, driven by concerns over supply chain disruptions, rising fuel costs, and potential capacity shortages later in the year. Shippers are actively front-loading inventory, placing significant pressure on Asian origin ports.
  • While structural overcapacity remains a factor due to incoming newbuild deliveries, carriers are maintaining strict capacity discipline by implementing heavily concentrated blank sailings on Asia–Northern Europe and Mediterranean routes.
• Operations:
  • Singapore: Vessel berthing delays are now as long as 7 days, with an estimated 450,000 TEUs waiting in queue. Yard density is at ~80%.
  • Chinese base ports: Vessel bunching and terminal congestion are driving significant origin delays. Shanghai and Qingdao are experiencing vessel wait times of up to 72 to 96 hours.
  • Northern European base ports: Consolidated mega-ship arrivals are overwhelming terminal throughput. Yard utilization across Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Antwerp has surged to 85-90%. As a result, inland barge and feeder connections are experiencing wait times of up to 72 hours.
• Freight Rates:
  • Amid the sudden tightening of capacity and a wave of early bookings, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) recorded a significant increase for Northern Europe last week. This decisive spike shifts the market entirely out of its recent "cautious stabilization" phase.
  • Carriers are enforcing mid-to-late-month Freight All Kinds (FAK) rate increases, compounded by emergency bunker surcharges (EBSs) and newly introduced Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs).
  • With space suddenly filling up and capacity tightly controlled, market leverage has shifted back toward carriers. Shippers who delayed signing long-term contracts are facing a more volatile spot market, including the possibility of premium rates and surcharges.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Vessel utilization remains highly elevated, with carriers reporting load factors exceeding 94% across Northern European and West Mediterranean origins.
  • Network capacity is still down 10-15%, driven by ongoing string removals and a ~6% blank sailing rate through Week 23.
  • The demand outlook is increasingly uncertain as the upcoming expiration of the U.S.'s Section 122 tariff on July 24 weighs on shipper ordering patterns.
• Operations:
  • Northern European ports remain severely congested. At Antwerp, yard utilization has surpassed 90%, with berth delays exceeding 2 days. Rotterdam is at 84-90% yard utilization, with barge wait times of 72 to 75 hours and Rhine barge capacity down approximately 45%. Bremerhaven berth waits have reached approximately 50 hours as of Week 20, with ongoing rail disruptions expected through July. Hamburg is at 80-85% yard utilization, with vessel delays of 2 to 4 days.
  • In Southern Europe, Genoa is facing berth delays of 3 to 4 days. Valencia is absorbing diverted volumes.
  • Global carrier schedule reliability is at ~62%. Shippers are advised to book 3 to 4 weeks ahead.
• Equipment:
  • Critical container and chassis shortages persist across Germany, Benelux, Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia amid broad inland supply chain pressures.
• Freight Rates:
  • Spot rates from Northern Europe to the U.S. East Coast have risen sharply, up ~50% since late March.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • The market remains soft overall, with supply outpacing demand into late May and early June.
  • However, the market is seeing signs of a rebound in June. Multiple carriers have reported that vessel utilization is increasing in the coming weeks, with booking windows closing earlier amid rising cargo demand.
• Freight Rates:
  • To the U.S. East Coast: Rate levels will be increasingly localized for services specific to the Indian subcontinent–U.S. East Coast lane. If demand continues to increase out of India, Pakistan, and the broader region, space will tighten and rates will be set to increase.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: Rate dynamics on this lane are more complex. Cargo on this lane moves on mainliner Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB) service strings, which are seeing high utilization as TPEB-Pacific Southwest (PSW) routes appear to enter peak season.

Air

• Find the latest updates on global air freight operations on our Middle East escalation blog.
• North China:
  • Trans-Pacific Eastbound: Rates are undergoing upward rate pressure this week, driven by tightening capacity following the suspension of some charter operations. Demand and supply remain broadly balanced, but the supply squeeze is the primary pricing driver. Demand is expected to pick up in late May, which could result in further rate increases on lanes to Los Angeles (LAX)/New York (JFK).
  • Far East Westbound: Rates are trending slightly down week over week, with further softening expected in the second half of the week amid weak demand. The market remains stable, with no significant structural changes.
• South China:
  • Trans-Pacific Eastbound: Demand is slightly up, with carriers increasing spot rates to offset a recent drop in fuel surcharges. Several ad hoc charters operated last week, adding supply to the market. However, rates did not drop significantly, indicating underlying demand support.
  • Far East Westbound: Demand continues to soften, and rates are expected to stabilize in the near term.
• Taiwan:
  • Demand remains stable, with rates holding at last week's levels.
  • Capacity to the U.S. West Coast is becoming increasingly available.
  • Shippers are advised to book 7 days in advance.
• Vietnam:
  • Demand remains stable.
  • Rates are steady week over week with no significant reductions, particularly from Ho Chi Minh City (SGN).
  • Capacity is becoming increasingly available ex-origin.
  • Transit time to the U.S. and the EU remains consistent with last week, at approximately 6 to 8 days.
• Cambodia:
  • Rates remain relatively stable, with a marginal decrease of approximately $0.10–0.20.
  • Space remains limited.
  • Transit time is unchanged from last week.
• South Korea:
  • Market conditions appear stable. Rates are comparable to last week, or have slightly decreased.
  • Space on some carrier options is tight, whereas co-load space shows better availability.
  • Transit time for both TC1 and TC2 destinations is estimated at 3 to 6 days.
• Malaysia:
  • Demand has declined, improving capacity and lowering market rates across Trans-Pacific Eastbound and Far East Westbound lanes.
  • Shippers should finalize all bookings 5 to 7 days in advance to secure space and mitigate potential volatility.
• Thailand:
  • Carriers are reporting extremely tight space out of Bangkok (BKK) and connecting hubs, with the first available flights on some carriers pushed into June.
  • Rates are increasing slightly toward the end of the month.
  • Shippers are advised to book 7 to 10 days in advance.
• Indonesia:
  • Demand remains stable, with rates holding flat week over week.
  • Capacity is limited but manageable. Note that some carriers are reducing cargo capacity during the Hajj period.
  • Shippers are encouraged to book 7 to 10 days in advance.
• India:
  • Rates and space are broadly unchanged from last week, with a slight reduction compared to prior weeks.
  • Capacity from origin is improving.
  • Transit time for TC1 and TC2 destinations remains consistent with last week, at approximately 6 to 8 days.
• The Broader Indian Subcontinent:
  • Rates and space remain in line with last week, but conditions remain volatile.
  • Shippers are strongly advised to book early, particularly for large shipments. Any urgent shipments should be booked as express to ensure space to TC1 and TC2 destinations. Shippers should book 5 to 7 days in advance.

(Source: Flexport)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts on your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

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Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit time remained stable from China to the U.S. West Coast, increased from China to the U.S. East Coast, and decreased from China to North Europe.

Week to May 18, 2026

Transit time remained stable at 31.5 days from China to the U.S. West Coast; increased from 50.5 to 52.3 days from China to the U.S. East Coast; and decreased from 51.8 to 51 days from China to North Europe.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.