Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

Flexport has launched Buy Your Refund Claims, providing importers a faster path to IEEPA duty refunds. Instead of waiting on CBP to review and process your claims, Flexport can buy your refund claim and pay you directly in as little as two weeks. Get your offer here.

• Potential Tariff Increase on EU-Origin Vehicles: On May 1, President Trump announced that he intends to increase tariffs on EU-origin cars and trucks from 15% to 25%. While he indicated that the tariff increase would take place sometime this week, he did not provide an exact timeline. It is unclear whether the increase would apply only to completed autos, or both completed autos and auto parts.
  • When pressed on the timing of the increase this week, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer declined to provide a specific date but reaffirmed that the potential duty increase is related to ongoing tensions over the trade deal that the U.S. and the EU struck last July.
  • EU lawmakers and trade officials convened on May 6 to discuss the terms of the U.S. trade deal, but the negotiations concluded without an agreement.
• CAPE Refund Timelines: CBP anticipates issuing its first IEEPA duty refund on or around May 11, 2026.
  • Per an April 28 update filed with the Court of International Trade (CIT), CBP indicated that roughly 21% of total entries have been accepted for the removal of IEEPA duties through CAPE, and about 3% have been liquidated through CAPE and have entered the refund stage. Refunds will be issued via ACH direct deposit to the importer of record (IOR) or the designated notify party.
  • CBP previously indicated that unliquidated entries or entries that liquidated within the past 80 days could expect refunds approximately 60 to 90 days after CAPE acceptance. Entries with suspended, extended, or under-review status, as well as warehouse entries, will receive refunds once the entry liquidates.
  • With the CAPE system still in its early stages, many importers face uncertain refund timelines. Flexport's Buy Your Refund Claims gives importers a faster path to IEEPA refunds, with payment in as little as two weeks. Learn more and get your offer here.
• CAPE Filing Outcomes: Per an April 26 update on CAPE's first-week filing outcomes, only 63% of CAPE declarations passed initial file validation. Of the 13.3 million entries on those validated declarations, about 2.1 million entries—nearly 16%—were subsequently rejected after failing entry-specific validations. Meanwhile, entries filed by Flexport have seen a much lower CAPE rejection rate: 2.6%.
  • Flexport continues to minimize rejections through proactive preparation. Before submitting CAPE declarations, Flexport organizes and manages customers' Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) data, removes any entries that did not qualify for CAPE Phase 1, and runs our Audit Your Broker tool to automatically identify and address potential issues. And even after entries are accepted, Flexport anticipates that additional issues may arise once CBP removes IEEPA HTS codes and recalculates duties.
  • Importers should audit their entries as soon as possible before submitting refund requests in CAPE. For rejected entries, importers should begin filing protests and Post Summary Corrections (PSCs) promptly to maintain entry eligibility and ensure timely refunds. Importers should also monitor protest deadlines for entries already filed in a CAPE declaration, in case CBP rejects them or flags any issues during review.
  • Importers should also monitor liquidated entries that are at least 80 days post-liquidation but within the 180-day protest window. CBP has yet to issue guidance on these entries, which are expected to be addressed in a later phase of CAPE.
  • Note that entries accepted and attached to a CAPE claim are not eligible for PSCs. However, unliquidated entries rejected from CAPE can be corrected via PSC and then resubmitted on a subsequent CAPE declaration. Entries for which a PSC has already been filed can still be accepted on a CAPE declaration.
  • Flexport's Trade Advisory team can help customers identify the full impact of any errors and correct entries prior to CAPE submission. Additionally, Flexport's dedicated CAPE Task Force can manage the entire filing process on behalf of customers. Learn more about CAPE and Flexport's guidance on our blog.
• Other Recent Developments:
  • The Department of Commerce recently created a new Section 232 exclusion for goods that contain 0% steel, aluminum, or copper content. This exclusion, which applies retroactively to April 6, 2026, exempts items with 0% metal content in Chapters 72, 73, 74, and 76 from 25% or 50% Section 232 duties. This exclusion is reflected in the Flexport Tariff Simulator when sliding all metal content values to 0%.
  • On April 23, the Department of Commerce began accepting documentation for tariff adjustment requests from certain producers of Canadian- and Mexican-origin steel and aluminum. Suppliers who commit to new U.S. steel or aluminum production for use in U.S. automobiles or medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) may request a reduced Section 232 duty of 25%, as opposed to the existing 50% rate. The reduced rate applies only to quantities equal to newly committed U.S. production capacity. Additionally, the steel or aluminum must qualify for preferential treatment under the USMCA and must be smelted and cast or melted and poured in Canada or Mexico.
  • On April 23, President Trump announced that the U.S. may impose a "big tariff" on U.K. goods if the U.K. does not eliminate its digital services tax. He did not specify an exact rate, but stated that it would be "more than what [the U.K. is] getting from its digital services tax." During the 2025–2026 tax year, the U.K. collected about £944 million ($1.27 billion) in digital services taxes from tech companies.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Space is expected to grow more constrained over the next few weeks due to the usual May holiday demand bump, combined with blank sailings announced for Weeks 20 and 21. This has resulted in increasingly restricted Named Account (NAC) space, and we expect an uptick in operational volatility. We recommend planning proactively for urgent cargo and Freight All Kinds (FAK) overflows by booking early.
  • As blank sailings and new contracts take effect, we continue to anticipate more disruptions compared to previous weeks.
• Freight Rates:
  • Floating rates are overall holding steady into May, although a few carriers have pushed for minor rate increases. We expect the second half of May to see a slight increase, given tightening capacity.
  • Emergency bunker surcharges (EBSs) remain in effect, and continue to undergo review every two weeks amid ongoing volatility in oil prices.
  • Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) for the second half of May will be finalized within the coming week, and should be monitored in line with the capacity situation. We expect that PSSs will be delayed until June, with some carriers already announcing postponements.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Weak underlying demand and excess vessel capacity continue to define the market, and newbuild vessel deliveries are continuing to add capacity to the Asia-Europe trade lane.
  • Per Drewry, carriers are actively pulling capacity, with a 6% global cancellation rate over the next five weeks and 42% of those blank sailings concentrated on Asia-Europe and Mediterranean routes.
• Vessel Routing:
  • The ongoing Middle East conflict continues to drive diversions around the Cape of Good Hope. While extended transits are absorbing a portion of the global fleet, the volume of newly delivered vessels is outweighing the impact of physical network disruptions driven by the conflict.
  • Notably, there are early signs of selective Suez Canal re-engagement: the services Ocean Rise Express (OCR) and EPIC resumed Suez transits on westbound routes, reducing transit times by up to 7 to 12 days compared to Cape of Good Hope routings. However, Cape routings remain the dominant approach industry-wide.
  • The broader market remains in a wait-and-see mode. Most shippers and carriers are closely monitoring whether these early transits signal a sustained shift, particularly given outstanding concerns around war risk insurance premiums for Suez Canal passages. The situation remains dynamic.
  • Find the latest ocean market impacts of the Middle East conflict on our blog.
• Freight Rates:
  • The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) for Northern Europe stands at $1,521/TEU as of April 30. Spot rates have softened as sluggish European consumer demand persists.
  • On May 1, major carriers implemented a combination of surcharges to offset rising bunker costs related to extended Cape of Good Hope diversions.
  • Base freight rates continue to soften amid overcapacity. However, carriers are supporting an elevated price floor with blank sailings and recent surcharges.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Vessel utilization remains elevated at 94%+ across Northern European and West Mediterranean origins.
  • Network capacity is still down 10-15%. Selective blank sailings persist into Weeks 18 to 20, with an ~8% cancellation rate on Northern Europe–U.S. East Coast and Gulf loops.
• Operations:
  • Northern European ports remain severely congested. At Rotterdam, yard utilization is at 84-90%, with barge waits of 72 to 75 hours; Hamburg is at ~89%, with vessel waits of ~2 days; Antwerp-Bruges is at 70-85%, with berth delays exceeding 2 days; and Bremerhaven is at 80-85%, with berth delays of 1 to 3 days and major inland rail closures through July.
  • In the Mediterranean, berth delays at Genoa have reached 3 to 4 days amid transshipment pressures, while Valencia continues to absorb diverted volumes.
  • Global schedule reliability stands at ~62%. Shippers are advised to book 3 to 4 weeks ahead.
• Equipment:
  • Critical container and chassis shortages persist across Germany, Benelux, Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia, extending into Week 21.
• Freight Rates:
  • Spot rates from Northern Europe to the U.S. East Coast remain firm as tight capacity persists.
  • Across Northern European and Mediterranean origins, carriers are actively collecting Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) that took effect on April 8.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Major ports in Northwest India, including Mundra and Nhava Sheva, continue to experience congestion driven by the second-order impacts of the Middle East conflict. This trend has become the norm and is expected to persist. Find the latest ocean market impacts on our Middle East escalation blog.
  • To the U.S. East Coast: The market continues to stabilize, with shipments being loaded within a normal time frame. The May outlook for blank sailings remains minimal, following a decline in blank sailings last month.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: Capacity remains available. However, intra-Asia feeder capacity involving India and Asia-to-Middle-East routes continues to face operational delays.
• Freight Rates:
  • For May validities, rates are decreasing slightly on base-port-to-base-port lanes. Carriers aim to increase utilization across vessels and service strings.

Air

• Find the latest updates on global air freight operations on our Middle East escalation blog.
• North China:
  • The China to U.S. West Coast market has softened noticeably this week in the wake of the Labor Day holiday. Meanwhile, the China to U.S. East Coast market is seeing mixed conditions across gateways.
  • Chicago (ORD) is experiencing a clear rate correction post-holiday, with ample capacity available from May 6 onward—a reversal from the tightness seen in recent weeks.
  • New York (JFK) is seeing a gradual slowdown, with reduced cargo volumes from May 5.
  • Dallas (DFW) and Atlanta (ATL) remain space-constrained, and shippers should expect longer transit times out of these gateways.
• South China:
  • The peak season has passed, and U.S. lanes are stabilizing. Traditional cargo demand has softened following the Golden Week holiday rush, while ecommerce demand is holding steady at current market levels.
  • Capacity has loosened slightly, as flight cancellations during Golden Week were limited compared to the Lunar New Year period.
• Vietnam:
  • The market remains stable following the extended holiday period. Demand is expected to see a modest uptick in the second half of the week.
  • Space is manageable. However, flight connections remain tight, resulting in average transit times of 6 to 8 days for both North America and Europe destinations.
• Cambodia:
  • Outbound capacity remains constrained, maintaining elevated market rates.
  • Space availability remains consistent with last week's levels.
  • Rates are expected to remain at current levels in the near term.
• Malaysia:
  • Persistently strong demand and volatile fuel costs continue to extend transit times across U.S. and European sectors, with delays expected to persist well beyond May 10.
  • Capacity remains tight across both direct and connecting services.
  • Shippers are strongly advised to plan for longer lead times and finalize bookings at least 7 to 10 days in advance of the cargo ready date.
• Indonesia:
  • The market remains broadly stable, but tight space availability persists and rates remain volatile.
  • Demand for U.S. destinations is running slightly higher than on European lanes.
  • As with recent weeks, shippers are encouraged to place bookings at least 7 days prior to the cargo ready date to secure space.
• Indian Subcontinent:
  • Market conditions are broadly stable and consistent with last week. Both rates and space remain volatile.
  • Shippers are advised to place bookings at least 3 to 5 days prior to the cargo ready date. For urgent shipments, shippers should place express bookings to ensure space.

(Source: Flexport)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts on your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

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Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit time remained stable from China to the U.S. West Coast, and decreased from China to the U.S. East Coast and from China to North Europe.

Week to May 4, 2026

Transit time remained stable at 30.5 days from China to the U.S. West Coast; fell significantly from 60.2 to 48.8 days from China to the U.S. East Coast; and decreased from 59.1 to 52.1 days from China to North Europe.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.