CBP Opens CAPE Phase 3 Refund Filings and Importers Challenge CIT Injunction Limits; TPEB Rates Hold at 3x Pre-Conflict Levels

Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• CBP Flips the Switch on CAPE Phase 3 Refund Filings: Court-ordered refunds tied to reliquidated entries have a new filing channel open. CBP turned the system on October 6 at 5:10 a.m. Eastern and called the launch “successfully deployed.” The agency says 477 declarations have already come in.
  • Eligibility for this phase hasn’t changed from what was announced earlier: it’s limited to entries a court has ordered reliquidated, and only for plaintiffs who had a valid importer of record (IOR) number on file with CBP by July 30.
  • Flexport’s trade compliance team flagged a limit worth keeping in mind now that filings are live: reliquidating an entry under CAPE doesn’t reopen the whole entry. A follow-on protest can only challenge an issue that was actually part of that reliquidation, under 19 U.S.C. 1414(d), so a new, unrelated argument can’t piggyback on it.
  • Eligible importers should check filing status now, and loop in Flexport’s Trade Advisory group before filing any follow-on protest to make sure it falls within scope.
• Importers and the Government Clash Over How Far the Trade Court’s Injunction Power Reaches: The Supreme Court’s CASA decision narrowed when federal courts can order relief that reaches beyond the parties actually in front of them, and the open question now is whether that same limit reaches the Court of International Trade’s (CIT) authority over tariff disputes. The government argues it does. A coalition of importers led by V.O.S. Selections argues it doesn’t, telling the court in an October 5 brief that the CIT’s jurisdiction over trade cases works differently and that nothing in CASA strips its ability to order relief for importers who were never formally part of the lawsuit.
  • The disagreement turns on whether the CIT should be treated like an ordinary federal district court for purposes of CASA, or whether its specialized, nationwide jurisdiction over trade cases puts it in a different category entirely.
  • If the government wins this argument, importers hit by the same IEEPA tariffs would likely have to bring and litigate their own separate cases to get relief, rather than riding along on someone else’s win.
  • If the plaintiffs win, the CIT could keep issuing rulings on IEEPA tariffs that benefit importers who were never named in the lawsuit, which is exactly the outcome the government is trying to foreclose.
• A Washington Policy Debate Is Questioning Whether Friendly Talk on Canada and Mexico Means Friendlier Tariffs: Inu Manak, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, raised that question directly this week. Speaking during a panel discussion in the capital, she argued that the administration’s friendly public posture toward both neighbors bears little resemblance to the tariffs their exporters actually face.
  • Canada is the clearer example: even as officials have struck a conciliatory tone at times, the country has picked up a growing list of sector-specific duties this year on motor vehicles, alcohol, dairy, and steel-linked products.
  • The comments land as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) heads into its mandated six-year joint review this year, adding weight to the question of whether its preferential terms still mean what they used to.
  • Importers relying on USMCA preference should keep certificates of origin current and watch for further carve-outs, since qualifying goods haven’t been insulated from this year’s broader tariff expansion.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Carriers increased blank sailings for WK41 Golden Week, but deployed capacity still remains higher than similar period last few years
  • Port congestion at Asian origins is easing, but omits remain an active part of deployment strategy to get schedules back on track. Shanghai is the most volatile and saw upwards of 10+ omits a week in September.
  • China's Golden Week holiday (October 1 to 7) is lowering export volumes this week; post-Golden Week demand rebound will set stage for trade through mid-November.
• Freight Rates:
  • Rates stabilized this week with Golden Week, but remain more than 3x their level before the Iran conflict began.
  • Traditional market patterns would indicate a slowdown on the trade before CNY push, but the market is expected to remain tighter in Q4 than the last couple years.
  • Shippers should expect rates to stay elevated, build extra buffers into cargo-ready dates given congestion, and lock in space for post-holiday cargo now.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Capacity is fully deployed this week, with blank sailings at 1.1% and none scheduled for the week of October 12.
  • Blank sailings are forecast to build from the week of October 19 and reach 10.7-12.9% in early November, above the 7% level that signals a capacity cut.
  • Cargo demand is weakening, so the added blanks reflect carriers matching supply to softer volumes, rather than a squeeze on space.
• Suez Canal Return:
  • Capacity continues to return to standard Suez Canal routing. CMA CGM, Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and Cosco/OOCL have each moved services back through the canal.
  • ONE is the latest, with a Southeast Asia-to-Northern Europe sailing scheduled to transit later this month, while the other Premier Alliance members have not yet followed.
  • Returning vessels are adding capacity to the trade and shortening transit times on those services.
  • Shippers can use Suez-routed services where available, though the shift is carrier by carrier and will continue to be monitored.
• Freight Rates:
  • Rates have fallen about 60% since July.
  • Carriers have announced rate increases for late October, though added capacity from the Suez return makes them harder to hold.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Blank sailings run at 3.8% this week and 3.9% next week, then rise to 13.6% the week of October 19 and 9.3% the week after, before falling back to 0% the week of November 2.
  • This is a short, concentrated capacity reduction, rather than a sustained one. Utilization out of NEUR and WMED is above 94%, driven by carrier capacity cuts rather than demand, as export volumes are down about 6.4–6.5% YoY.
  • Congestion remains high in North Europe, with Rotterdam near standstill and Antwerp berth delays over 5 days. Container and chassis shortages persist at TAWB origins into week 44.
  • Shippers with cargo ready in the weeks of October 19 and 26 should book early to secure space.
• Freight Rates:
  • Rates from Northern Europe to the U.S. East Coast have fallen 2.2% week over week and continue to ease, but they remain about 96% above pre-Hormuz levels.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Available space on the corridor to the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast remains tight.
  • Congestion at Asian transshipment hubs to both USEC and USWC are lengthening transit times.
  • Major ISC ports continue to manage increased volume related to Gulf War escalation and the inability of large container ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Fuel and energy shortages are also slowing inland trucking in Pakistan and Bangladesh, which lengthens and complicates container pickup times at Karachi and Chittagong.
  • Shippers should book early, build in extra transit time, and expect cargo to load later than the requested date on peak sailings.
  • Market sees a continued combination of routing via Cape of Good Hope and Suez Canal for the 4 major services Northwest India to USEC.
• Freight Rates:
  • Carriers revised Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) for Indian subcontinent and Middle East cargo to the U.S., effective October 1.

Air

• North China (PVG/PEK):
  • Demand is soft for Golden Week, a seasonal lull rather than a new demand signal.
  • Airlines canceled flights ahead of the holiday to match lower volume, which is holding Trans-Pacific rates steady.
  • Europe-bound demand is also low, and rates eased slightly week over week. Flexport expects a demand recovery after the holiday, not a peak-season surge.
• South China (HKG/SZX/CAN):
  • Trans-Pacific rates rose week over week, most visibly on flights departing in the next 2 to 7 days, because several flights were canceled during National Day.
  • Canceled flights resume this week, but space at SZX and CAN is full through October 10. Rates should ease slightly on later departures without a large drop.
  • Europe-bound (FEWB) demand continues to soften, keeping rates low.
• Taiwan (TPE):
  • A four-day holiday is lifting U.S.-bound demand compared with last week, while Europe capacity has loosened slightly.
  • Shippers are advised to book 5 to 7 days in advance to secure space.
• Vietnam (SGN/HAN):
  • Trans-Pacific demand remains high and rates are holding at elevated levels. Airlines expect space to stay tight through October.
  • Europe-bound demand is unchanged week over week, with rates still elevated.
• Korea (ICN):
  • Demand is flat compared with last week, with the Chuseok and October 3 to 5 holidays behind and one more holiday ahead on October 9.
  • U.S. East Coast capacity is loose on an oversupply of charter capacity from co-loaders.
  • U.S. West Coast (LAX) space is tightening
• Malaysia (KUL):
  • Export volumes are steady, but hub congestion continues to limit Trans-Pacific capacity.
  • Trans-Pacific pricing is firm, and Europe-bound rates eased slightly. Shippers should book 5 to 7 days before departure.
• Thailand (BKK):
  • Thai Airways (TG) announced an inbound and outbound terminal cargo embargo, originally set for September 30 to October 6, then pushed to start October 1. TG lifted it on the night of September 30, but the backlog kept the TG and BFS terminals congested.
  • Airlines must clear that backlog before accepting new bookings, which pushes the first available flight to next week.
• India (BOM/DEL/MAA/BLR):
  • BOM freighter cancellations from a runway revamp, plus further cancellations after some flights shifted to NMI, are pushing demand to AMD and BLR. Both airports and the Mumbai and Chennai terminals are congested, delaying shipment handovers.
  • Demand rose last week as shippers airlift ocean cargo to bypass maritime bottlenecks, keeping India-to-U.S. lanes busy.
• Indian subcontinent (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan):
  • Sri Lanka: Schedules are on time except for two carriers. Base rates are stable, and fuel surcharges are falling. Middle East carriers are tightening space as perishable volumes rise.
  • Bangladesh: Europe schedules are reliable with space available. The U.S. lane is tighter and less reliable.
  • Pakistan: Schedules are reliable, but rates are elevated, and carriers are quoting only 1 to 2 days of rate validity.
• Transatlantic (Europe to U.S.):
  • Europe-origin air rates rose 3% week over week, with Europe-origin capacity down 1% (Source: WorldACD).
  • Flows out of Europe increased across all sectors over the past two weeks compared with the prior two.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

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